Political Turnover and Institutional Reform: Theory and Evidence∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
Strengthening checks and balances (cohesive political institutions) is one of the key means of improving governance. This paper examines how such reforms are related to threats to the tenure of ruling political incumbents. We formalize this idea theoretically and test it empirically, using data on leaders since 1875 and events that decrease the likelihood that a group will remain in office. The econometric results are well in line with the theoretical predictions. ∗We thank participants in the CREI conference on Politics, Information and the Macroeconomy 2011, the PIER Political Economy Conference 2011, the EOPP-STICERD Conference on Economic Foundations of Public Policy 2011, a CIFAR IOG Program Meeting, and seminars at Yale and Columbia for their comments. Financial support from the European Research Council (ERC) and the Torsten and Ragnar Söderberg Foundations is gratefully ackowledged. Reynal-Querol is grateful for support from the ERC (grant 203576), the Spanish Ministerio de Educación (grant SEJ2007-64340), the Barcelona GSE Research Network, and the Government of Catalonia.
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